WASHINGTON – While control of the House of Representatives is a toss-up heading into November 5, control of the Senate is leaning toward the Republican party. Republican control of the Senate would give Oklahoma’s two senators a bump in influence.
ABC’s FiveThirtyEight predicts the Republican Party will have a small majority heading into the 119th Congress. They predict Republicans will control 52 of the 100 Senate seats.
“The majority party in the Senate, which will likely be a Republican majority,” Michael Crespin, the director and curator of the Carl Albert Research Center, said “If I were to bet on something out of the presidency, the House and the Senate, betting on the Senate to be a Republican majority would be my guess.”
Neither James Lankford (R-Oklahoma City) nor Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville) is up for reelection this election cycle. Mullin will be up for reelection in 2026, and Lankford will be up for reelection in 2028.
A Republican majority
If FiveThirtyEight’s prediction is correct, and the Republicans gain control of the Senate, Lankford stands to gain influence.
Lankford is currently the Vice Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Ethics. The Vice Chairman is the ranking minority member of the committee which is currently chaired by Christopher Coons (D-Delaware). If Republicans take control of the Senate, Lankford will likely become the committee’s chair in the 119th Congress.
Although the Senate Select Committee on Ethics is not flashy, it is important.
“He has, I’m sure to the pleasure of his colleagues, been willing to have a senior position on the committee,” Charles Finnocchiaro, Associate Director of the Carl Albert Congressional Research Center, said. “Nobody really wants to be in the position of policing their colleagues.”
Lankford is also in a position to become the chair of three subcommittees.
Lankford is currently the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Government Operations and Border Management, a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. He is also the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources and Infrastructure a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Finance.
With the retirement of Mitt Romney (R-Utah) at the end of the 118th Congress, Lankford is also set to become chair of the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight, a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.
Although he is in line to become the chair of three subcommittees, he will have to choose two to chair. According to the Republican Conferences Rules in the Rules Governing Senate Committee and Subcommittee Assignment Procedures, the chair or vice chair of the Senate Committee on Ethics may only serve as chair or ranking member of two subcommittees.
“A House member or Senator can sometimes ask for a waiver for those standing rules of the chambers,” Finnocchiaro said.
As one of the most junior Senators, Mullin is not in a position to become chair of any committees. However, he may find his way to the gavel of a subcommittee.
Mullin is currently the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Chemical Safety, Waste Management, Environmental Justice and Regulatory Oversight, a subcommittee of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. In a Republican-controlled Senate, he would be a frontrunner for the chairmanship.
Although Lankford and Mullin are in line for these positions, nothing is set in stone.
“There are all things that are sort of negotiated and worked out by the leadership in consultation with the Senators themselves,” Finnocchiaro said.
According to Emily Stacey, a Rose State College political science professor, a Republican Senate likely will not change much for Oklahomans.
“I don’t know that there’s going to be a whole lot of difference other than obstruction,” Stacey said. “Because what’s going to really happen is a scenario like we have right now. It’s going to be a very slim majority.”
A blue Senate
Other than a potential shift in committee assignments, Oklahoma’s influence in the Senate would not significantly change if the Democrats retain control of the chamber.
The most significant change on the horizon would be due to Romney’s retirement. Due to Romney’s departure from Congress, Lankford would be in line to become the ranking member of the Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight.
Kevin Eagleson is reporting from Gaylord News’ Washington bureau this fall as part of an OU Daily scholarship.
Gaylord News is a reporting project of the University of Oklahoma Gaylord College of Journalism and Mass Communication. For more stories by Gaylord News go to GaylordNews.net
