WASHINGTON – The Oklahoma soybean economy is struggling as China has purchased no soybean exports from U.S. farmers since September.
“The U.S. soybean industry has a profound, positive impact on the U.S. economy,” said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, in a testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee. “We have long been U.S. agriculture’s number one export crop, and by-the-numbers look demonstrates the value of the soybean industry to our domestic economic health.”
The tariffs placed on China by President Donald Trump resulted in a trade war between the two countries. China slowed their soybean purchases in April, and numbers continued to drop until September, when no purchases were made.
“It’s a struggle because China is one of our largest purchasers of soybeans internationally,” said Oklahoma Senator James Lankford. “China is in a trade negotiation with the president, and so they’ve stopped buying soybeans.”
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. exported $12.64 billion in soybeans to China in 2024. Accounting for over half of 2024’s soybean exports, concerns are raising among Oklahomans.
“There is concerns and it’s all about exports,” said Oklahoma House Representative Kenton Patzkowsky, Chair of Oklahoma Committee on Agriculture. “We’re at a difficult spot on soybean markets right now. So yeah, there is a lot of concern.”
According to the USDA, Oklahoma farmers produced 8.1 million bushels of soybeans in 2023. With a crop that abundant, buyers are necessary in order to keep a steady flow of production.
“They just shut it off,” said Lankford. “When that happens, we’re growing a crop we expect to be able to sell, and then there’s no buyer.”
Soybeans are one of Oklahoma’s top crops. About 460,000 acres of land were used to farm soybeans in Oklahoma in 2023 according to the Oklahoma Soybean Board. The acreage has remained relatively stable over recent years, reflecting both the crop’s popularity and the limits of land available for soybean production.
“Until the prices dropped, it was very close to thriving,” said Rep. Patzkowsky. “It’s a very popular crop right now.”
With the loss of the exports to China, soybeans are beginning to stack up as the supply overtakes the demand. Stores and storage facilities are filling up, and farmers are being forced to make decisions about whether to sell at the current price or wait until the market improves.
“The export demand issues, we can’t just keep stacking soybeans up in stores,” said Rep. Patzkowsky. “We’ve got to get them shipped out… It weighs heavy on market prices. We’re seeing that right now.”
When China stopped purchasing soybeans, the prices dropped, and Oklahoma farmers are beginning to see the affects. The price drop has been especially noticeable for operations that rely heavy on exports for their income.
“That’s a major problem,” said Lankford. “The price just collapses at that point, which really affects a lot of the farmers in Oklahoma.
Farmers across the country are dealing with the fallout from the tariff war caused by both the United States and China.
“Commodity prices are down nearly 50% from highs experienced three years ago, while farmers are still facing elevated prices for land, seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and farm machinery,” said Ragland.
“For U.S. soybean farmers, 2025 has proven to be a remarkably challenging year. We are facing immense export market losses with our largest customer – China – turning to our South American competitors for soybean purchases. Due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, soybean farmers have lost our biggest export market,” he said.
Soybeans closed Wednesday at $11.10 per bushel on the Chicago market two-thirds of what the soybeans received in 2022. Soybeans hit a low of $8 per bushel in May 2019 but subsequently recovered during the Pandemic. By June 2022, the average price reached $16.40 per bushel, according to the USDA.
The impending Supreme Court decision on presidential authority over tariffs could significantly affect soybean prices. A ruling limiting tariffs may boost exports and lower input costs, driving prices up. A decision upholding current authority could maintain trade friction, suppressing demand and keeping prices under pressure.
The Supreme Court is expected to come to a ruling in the next few months.
The U.S. and China have been in trade talks, as Presidents Trump and Xi met to reach a conclusion on this trade war. While no soybeans have been purchased yet, China has agreed to a deal with Trump.
According to US agricultural secretary Brooke Rollins in a post on X, China will “Buy at least 12 million metric tons in U.S. soybeans this year. But at lest 25 million metric tons in U.S. soybeans each year in 2026, 2027, and 2028.”
As China has promised to beginning purchasing soybeans again, Oklahoma farmers can hope to see the soybean market stabilize. The recovery will likely be slow, but renewed demand could prevent further price drops and reduce the backlog of stored soybeans.
“It doesn’t look so great right now, but hang in there,” said Rep. Patzkowsky. “Tighten your belt. We’re just going through a rough time right now. It’ll get better. Hang in there. Don’t give up.”
Gaylord News is a reporting project of the University of Oklahoma Gaylord College of Journalism and Mass Communication. For more stories by Gaylord News go to gaylordnews.net.
